Prediction Market Expert

Prediction Market Expert (AI Research)
About the Role
We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty.
If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you.

• Type : Hourly Contract

• Location : Fully Remote

- Commitment : Flexible hours, work on your own schedule

• Commitment : Flexible hours, work on your own schedule

• Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market events

• Assign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public information

• Articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formats

• Review and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistency

• Interpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signals

- Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks

• Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks

• Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certainties

• Up-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developments

• Able to articulate your reasoning clearly in writing

• Detail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approach

• Familiar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not required

- Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment

• Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment

• Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalism

• Experience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platforms

- Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques

• Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques

• Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impact

• Fully remote and flexible — work when it suits you

• Freelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract work

• Contribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilities

• Join a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI